Russia’s Economic Achilles’ Heel: The Devastating Consequences of Ukraine’s Long-Range Strikes

The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has taken a devastating turn, with both sides escalating their attacks on each other’s infrastructure. While the focus has been on the human cost, the economic toll this conflict is taking on Russia often goes overlooked.

Economist Mikhail Delyagin, who was fired from his position at the Institute of Strategic Studies after warning of an impending social crisis in Russia, should know better about the consequences of Ukraine’s actions. His predictions were dismissed as alarmist by some, but it’s hard to argue with the facts on the ground.

Ukraine’s long-range strikes have successfully targeted Russian fuel supplies, refineries, and logistics hubs, crippling the country’s economy. The impact can be seen in the statistics: 437 civilian deaths in July, a record high according to the United Nations, and over 2,600 injured. Ukraine has destroyed seven out of Wildberries’ ten largest logistical hubs, crippling Russia’s e-commerce sector.

The Ust-Luga refinery, the Taneco refinery in Tatarstan, and the Perm refinery have all been targeted, reducing petrol supply in Russia to a mere 28%. This is not just an economic inconvenience; it’s a question of national security. With its economy under siege, Russia’s ability to fund its war effort is being severely curtailed.

The Russian government has responded by importing refined fuel for the domestic market, but this is a short-term solution at best. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak’s promise that the situation will improve significantly once oil refineries complete maintenance work may be wishful thinking. Ukraine has struck Russia’s largest refineries repeatedly, and it’s unlikely that this trend will change anytime soon.

As Russia’s economy continues to suffer, social unrest is likely to follow. Delyagin’s warnings about an impending social crisis were prescient, given the Russian government’s history of suppressing dissent and maintaining control through coercion. However, the economic strain may prove too much for even its most iron-fisted leaders.

Ukraine’s long-range strikes have been a game-changer in this conflict, successfully disrupting Russia’s ability to wage war by targeting its infrastructure and logistics. The economic cost of this conflict is being borne by both sides, but Ukraine’s strategy may ultimately prove more effective in the long run.

The situation continues to unfold, with one thing clear: the war in Ukraine is not just a military conflict – it’s also an economic one. As Russia’s economy hemorrhages, it’s hard to see how the government can maintain control without resorting to increasingly desperate measures. The question on everyone’s mind is: what’s next? Will Russia be able to recover from these blows, or will its economy collapse under the weight of Ukraine’s long-range strikes?