How Taiwan Plans to Use Drones to Stop China in Its Tracks

As tensions between Taipei and Beijing escalate, Taiwan’s military has been rapidly accelerating efforts to build a formidable drone force. The island nation aims to deploy large numbers of aerial and unmanned surface drones to deter potential Chinese aggression, drawing inspiration from Ukraine’s successful use of drones against Russia.

Taiwan is exploring the concept of creating a “hellscape” for any invading force by saturating enemy positions with drone-launched missiles and artillery. This strategy involves deploying drones in large numbers to overwhelm an adversary, making it difficult for them to maintain control over their territory. However, critics argue that acquiring drones does not automatically translate into effective military capabilities.

Developing the necessary organisational structures, doctrine, and training to use these systems effectively will be a significant challenge for Taiwan’s military. The country’s drone industry is expanding rapidly, with domestic manufacturers targeting 100,000 units per month by 2030. The government has proposed spending $6.5 billion over five years on drones, but this plan faces opposition from lawmakers who are concerned about potential waste and corruption.

The Cabinet proposal for a special defence budget of NT$1.25 trillion ($24.82 billion) includes funding for unmanned systems, countermeasures, AI-assisted surveillance, and joint US-Taiwan research and procurement programmes. Taiwan’s efforts to develop its drone industry as an export sector are commendable, but the country still faces significant risks in relying on this technology.

One major concern is that China could attempt to isolate Taiwan from external support by disrupting supply chains or jamming drone communications. Taiwanese companies may also struggle to compete with their Chinese counterparts in terms of cost and efficiency. For example, the Czech Republic has become one of Taiwan’s largest export markets for drones, but it remains unclear whether these units have found their way to Ukraine.

The real test of Taiwan’s drone capabilities will come if China decides to take action against the island nation. Can Taipei effectively deploy its drone forces in a high-pressure conflict scenario? The answer to this question is far from certain. In fact, Taiwan’s reliance on drone technology raises questions about the country’s overall military strategy. While the “hellscape” concept may be an effective way to deter potential aggression, it is no substitute for a comprehensive and robust defence system.

Taiwan needs to develop its conventional military capabilities, including air power, naval forces, and ground troops, in addition to relying on drones. The situation on the Korean Peninsula has shown that military technology can only go so far in preventing conflict or deterring aggression. Ultimately, Taiwan’s drone gambit is a high-stakes bet on deterrence that may not pay off if Beijing decides to take a more aggressive stance against the island nation.